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Rational Choice And Judgment

Author : Rex Brown
ISBN : 9780471716884
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 77. 28 MB
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The tools needed to make a better, more informed decision. Decision analysis (DA) is the logic of making a decision using quantitative models of the decider's factual and value judgments. DA is already widely used in business, government, medicine, economics, law, and science. However, most resources present only the logic and models rather than demonstrating how these methods can be effectively applied to the real world. This book offers an innovative approach to decision analysis by focusing on decision-making tools that can be utilized immediately to make better, more informed decisions. It uses no mathematics beyond arithmetic. Examining how deciders think about their choices, this book provides problem-solving techniques that not only reflect sound modeling but also meet other essential requirements: they build on the thinking and knowledge that deciders already possess; they provide knowledge in a form that people are able and willing to provide; they produce results that the decider can use; and they are based on intimate and continuous interactions with the decider. The methods outlined in this text take into account such factors as the use, the user, the organization, available data, and subjective knowledge. Replete with exercises, case studies, and observations from the author’s own extensive consulting experience, the book quickly engages readers and enables them to master decision analysis by doing rather than by simply reading. Using familiar situations, it demonstrates how to handle knowledge as it unfolds in the real world. A term project is presented in the final chapter, in which readers can select an actual decision-making problem and apply their newfound tools to prepare a recommendation. A sample report is provided in the appendix. Beginning with qualitative structuring, the text advances to sophisticated quantitative skills that can be applied in both public and private enterprise, including: · Modeling decision-making under conditions of uncertainty or multiple objectives Risk analysis and assessment Communicating and justifying controversial decisions Personal life choices and political judgments Adapting decision aid to organizations The book's broad applicability makes it an excellent resource for any organization or as a textbook for decision-making courses in a variety of fields, including public policy, business management, systems engineering and general education. An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is available from the Wiley editorial department.

Rational Choice In An Uncertain World

Author : Reid Hastie
ISBN : 9781412959032
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 57. 56 MB
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In the Second Edition of Rational Choice in an Uncertain World the authors compare the basic principles of rationality with actual behaviour in making decisions. They describe theories and research findings from the field of judgment and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well. The Second Edition includes: - more coverage on the role of emotions, happiness, and general well-being in decisions - a summary of the new research on the neuroscience of decision processes - more discussion of the adaptive value of (non-rational heuristics) - expansion of the graphics for decision trees, probability trees, and Venn diagrams.

Rational Choice And Judgment

Author : Rex Brown
ISBN : 0470248440
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 26. 16 MB
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The tools needed to make a better, more informed decision. Decision analysis (DA) is the logic of making a decision using quantitative models of the decider?s factual and value judgments. DA is already widely used in business, government, medicine, economics, law, and science. However, most resources present only the logic and models rather than demonstrating how these methods can be effectively applied to the real world. This book offers an innovative approach to decision analysis by focusing on decision-making tools that can be utilized immediately to make better, more informed decisions. It uses no mathematics beyond arithmetic. Examining how deciders think about their choices, this book provides problem-solving techniques that not only reflect sound modeling but also meet other essential requirements: they build on the thinking and knowledge that deciders already possess; they provide knowledge in a form that people are able and willing to provide; they produce results that the decider can use; and they are based on intimate and continuous interactions with the decider. The methods outlined in this text take into account such factors as the use, the user, the organization, available data, and subjective knowledge. Replete with exercises, case studies, and observations from the author?s own extensive consulting experience, the book quickly engages readers and enables them to master decision analysis by doing rather than by simply reading. Using familiar situations, it demonstrates how to handle knowledge as it unfolds in the real world. A term project is presented in the final chapter, in which readers can select an actual decision-making problem and apply their newfound tools to prepare a recommendation. A sample report is provided in the appendix. Beginning with qualitative structuring, the text advances to sophisticated quantitative skills that can be applied in both public and private enterprise, including: · Modeling decision-making under conditions of uncertainty or multiple objectives · Risk analysis and assessment · Communicating and justifying controversial decisions · Personal life choices and political judgments · Adapting decision aid to organizations The book?s broad applicability makes it an excellent resource for any organization or as a textbook for decision-making courses in a variety of fields, including public policy, business management, systems engineering and general education. An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the problems in the book is available from the Wiley editorial department (email [email protected]) or directly from [email protected]

Rational Choice In An Uncertain World

Author : Reid Hastie
ISBN : 076192275X
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 38. 7 MB
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In Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, renowned authors Hastie and Dawes compare the basic principles of rationality with actual behavior in making decisions. They describe theories and research finding from the field of judgement and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well.

Rational Choice In An Uncertain World

Author : Reid Hastie
ISBN : OCLC:801304617
Genre :
File Size : 66. 59 MB
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The Art And Science Of Making Up Your Mind

Author : Rex V. Brown
ISBN : 1848729170
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 56. 74 MB
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Rex V. Brown has written several books on decision making, including 'Decision Analysis for the Manager' and 'Rational Choice and Judgment'.

Morality And Rational Choice

Author : J. Baron
ISBN : 9789401582261
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 34. 51 MB
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Public controversies - such as those about the distribution of goods between rich and poor, trade and population policies, allocation of medical resources, and the tradeoff between environment al protection and economic efficiency - often hinge on fundamental views about how we ought to make decisions tImt affect each other, that is, what principles we ought to follow. Efforts to find an acceptable public philosophy, a set of such principles on which people might agree, have foundered because of dis agreement among philosophers and others who are concerned with such issues. One view, which I shall develop and defend here, holds that decisions that affect others should be made according to an overall evaluation of the consequences of each option. This consequentialist view is opposed by a variety of alternatives, but many of the alternatives have in COlllmon a basis in moral intuition. To take a simple example, consequentialism holds that, other things equal, if we have decided that it is better to let a terminally ill patient die than to prolong her agony by keeping her alive, then we ought to kill her.

Rational Choice

Author : Robin M. Hogarth
ISBN : 0226348598
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 87. 62 MB
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Adaptive Mechanisms Of Superior Judgment Under Uncertainty

Author : Edward Tucker Cokely
ISBN : OCLC:173481157
Genre :
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ABSTRACT: Several studies demonstrate a consistent, positive relationship between cognitive ability measures and normatively superior judgment and decision behavior. However, little is known about the cognitive processes and mechanisms that give rise to these individual differences or more generally produce rational judgments under uncertainty. In a series of two experiments, protocol analysis and individual difference measures were used to demonstrate that, in contrast to the processes predicted by a rational theory (i.e. expected value calculations), rational choices often arise from combinations of simple considerations. These processes are similar to those predicted by the priority heuristic, although the priority heuristic generally predicted choices poorly, at or below chance levels. Critically, individual differences in elaborative adaptive strategies (e.g. more and more varied combinations of simple considerations) were strongly positively related to rational choices and fully mediated the cognitive ability and rational choice relationship. Implications for descriptive and process level models of choice are discussed.

Affective Intelligence And Political Judgment

Author : George E. Marcus
ISBN : 0226504689
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 65. 5 MB
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This work draws on research in neuroscience, physiology, and experimental psychology to conceptualize habit and reason as two mental states that interact in a delicate, highly functional balance controlled by emotion. It sheds light on a range of political behaviour, including party identification.

Strategies Of Compliance With The European Court Of Human Rights

Author : Andreas von Staden
ISBN : 9780812295153
Genre : Law
File Size : 67. 4 MB
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In Strategies of Compliance with the European Court of Human Rights, Andreas von Staden looks at the nature of human rights challenges in two enduring liberal democracies—Germany and the United Kingdom. Employing an ambitious data set that covers the compliance status of all European Court of Human Rights judgments rendered until 2015, von Staden presents a cross-national overview of compliance that illustrates a strong correlation between the quality of a country's democracy and the rate at which judgments have met compliance. Tracing the impact of violations in Germany and the United Kingdom specifically, he details how governments, legislators, and domestic judges responded to the court's demands for either financial compensation or changes to laws, policies, and practices. Framing his analysis in the context of the long-standing international relations debate between rationalists who argue that actions are dictated by an actor's preferences and cost-benefit calculations, and constructivists, who emphasize the influence of norms on behavior, von Staden argues that the question of whether to comply with a judgment needs to be analyzed separately from the question of how to comply. According to von Staden, constructivist reasoning best explains why Germany and the United Kingdom are motivated to comply with the European Court of Human Rights judgments, while rationalist reasoning in most cases accounts for how these countries bring their laws, policies, and practices into sufficient compliance for their cases to be closed. When complying with adverse decisions while also exploiting all available options to minimize their domestic impact, liberal democracies are thus both norm-abiding and rational-instrumentalist at the same time—in other words, they choose their compliance strategies rationally within the normative constraint of having to comply with the Court's judgments.

What Moves Man

Author : Annette Freyberg-Inan
ISBN : 9780791486351
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 77. 76 MB
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A critical look at the image of human nature that underlies the realist theory of international relations.

Judgement And Choice Perspectives On The Work Of Daniel Kahneman

Author : Daniel Kahneman
ISBN : 9781000149906
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 37. 81 MB
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The work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky has transformed the study of judgment and decision-making, and penetrated related disciplines such as economics, finance, marketing, law and medicine. In recognition of these achievements, Kahneman was awarded the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2003. This special issue presents ongoing research inspired by both Kahneman and Tversky. It covers many of the central themes the heuristics and biases of judgment and prediction, framing effects, assessments and predictions of utility that made their work so innovative. The specially written papers illustrate the range and depth of this work, and emphasise its continued relevance to current research.

Thinking And Deciding

Author : Jonathan Baron
ISBN : 0521680433
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 89. 70 MB
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Beginning with its first edition and through subsequent editions, Thinking and Deciding has established itself as the required text and important reference work for students and scholars of human cognition and rationality. In this, the fourth edition, Jonathan Baron retains the comprehensive attention to the key questions addressed in the previous editions - How should we think? What, if anything, keeps us from thinking that way? How can we improve our thinking and decision making? - and his expanded treatment of topics such as risk, utilitarianism, Baye's theorem, and moral thinking. With the student in mind, the fourth edition emphasizes the development of an understanding of the fundamental concepts in judgment and decision making. This book is essential reading for students and scholars in judgment and decision making and related fields, including psychology, economics, law, medicine, and business.

Blackwell Handbook Of Judgment And Decision Making

Author : Derek J. Koehler
ISBN : 9780470752913
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 54. 7 MB
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The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Contains contributions by experts from various disciplines that reflect current trends and controversies on judgment and decision making. Provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making and portrays the major findings in the field. Presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making. Explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law.

Cognition And Extended Rational Choice

Author : Howard Margolis
ISBN : 9781135990510
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 56. 13 MB
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One of the most exciting recent innovations in the social sciences has been the emergence of 'behaviour economics', which extends the notion of rational choice to allow for both motivation beyond self-interest and intuitions that cannot be reduced to the logic of a situation. This new book by Howard Margolis demonstrates how an account of widely-discussed topics, from tipping points in social choice to cognitive illusions and experimental anomalies, can be brought within a coherent framework. Starting from Darwin's own comments on the origins of moral concerns and from a review of notorious cognitive illusions, Margolis shows how rational choice theory can be extended to incorporate social as well as self-interested motivation, but allowing for the cognitive complications that can be expected in domains well-outside familiar experience. This yields a coherent account of many otherwise mystifying results from cooperation experiments. This book will be of great interest not only to students and researchers in behavioral and experimental economics but across the social sciences.

Judgment And Decision Making

Author : David K. Hardman
ISBN : 9781405123983
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 44. 93 MB
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Judgment and Decision Making is a refreshingly accessibletext that explores the wide variety of ways people make judgments. An accessible examination of the wide variety of ways peoplemake judgments Features up-to-date theoretical coverage, includingperspectives from evolutionary psychology and neuroscience Covers dynamic decision making, everyday decision making,individual differences, group decision making, and the nature ofmind and brain in relation to judgment and decision making Illustrates key concepts with boxed case studies andcartoons

Measurement Judgment And Decision Making

Author : Michael H. Birnbaum
ISBN : 9780080536002
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 61. 55 MB
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Measurement, Judgment, and Decision Making provides an excellent introduction to measurement, which is one of the most basic issues of the science of psychology and the key to science. Written by leading researchers, the book covers measurement, psychophysical scaling, multidimensional scaling, stimulus categorization, and behavioral decision making. Each chapter provides a useful handbook summary and unlocks the door for a scholar who desires entry to that field. Any psychologist who manipulates an independent variable that affects a psychological construct or who uses a numerical dependent variable to measure a psychological construct will want to study this book. Written by leading researchers in fields of measurement, psychophysical scaling, multidimensional scaling, stimulus categorization, and behavioral decision making Provides basic definitions and summaries of theories Presents summaries and citations to relevant literature Contains new developments, current controversies, and open questions Explains relationships among fields and historical links

Putting Choice Before Democracy

Author : Emily Hauptmann
ISBN : 9781438406107
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 84. 21 MB
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Shows how rational choice theory's critique and justification of democracy fails in its project to recast democratic theory.

Economic Methodology

Author : Marcel Boumans
ISBN : 9781137545572
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 66. 65 MB
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In this updated second edition of Economic Methodology, the authors bring together a wealth of research and teaching experience. While explaining the principles of economic methodology, they also contextualize it within the broader philosophy of science tradition. Economic Methodology: • explores the status and character of economics as a social science, from when economic methodology gained formal recognition in the 1980s until today • discusses the influence of the philosophy of science, particularly the reaction against logical positivism as exemplified by Popper, Kuhn, and Lakatos • provides material for reflection throughout the book, including 'So what?' and 'Focus' sections, which discuss related practices or themes Aimed at students coming to the subject for the first time, this concise, accessible textbook will help undergraduate and postgraduate students gain a thorough understanding of economics as a science.

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