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Notes On Economic Time Series Analysis System Theoretic Perspectives

Author : Masanao Aoki
ISBN : 9783642455650
Genre : Mathematics
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In seminars and graduate level courses I have had several opportunities to discuss modeling and analysis of time series with economists and economic graduate students during the past several years. These experiences made me aware of a gap between what economic graduate students are taught about vector-valued time series and what is available in recent system literature. Wishing to fill or narrow the gap that I suspect is more widely spread than my personal experiences indicate, I have written these notes to augment and reor ganize materials I have given in these courses and seminars. I have endeavored to present, in as much a self-contained way as practicable, a body of results and techniques in system theory that I judge to be relevant and useful to economists interested in using time series in their research. I have essentially acted as an intermediary and interpreter of system theoretic results and perspectives in time series by filtering out non-essential details, and presenting coherent accounts of what I deem to be important but not readily available, or accessible to economists. For this reason I have excluded from the notes many results on various estimation methods or their statistical properties because they are amply discussed in many standard texts on time series or on statistics.

System Theoretic Methods In Economic Modelling I

Author : S. Mittnik
ISBN : 9781483296227
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 35. 78 MB
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The value of applying system-theoretic concepts to economic modelling problems arises from the fact that it offers a unifying framework for modelling dynamic systems. In addition to offering this powerful conceptual framework, it provides a wide range of tools useful in applied work. System-theoretic techniques enter predominantly two stages of economic modelling efforts: the stage of model construction and the stage of model application in accordance with the modelling. The objective of this and subsequent volumes on System-Theoretic Methods in Economic Modelling I is to initiate and/or intensify dialogues between researchers and practitioners within and across the disciplines involved. This first volume brings together papers exhibiting a wide range of system-theoretic techniques and applications to economic problems. The papers have been divided into two groups, following roughly--but not necessarily--the above classification into the construction and application stages of economic modelling. The papers in the first group focus on the identification of dynamic and static systems, while the papers in the second group address dynamic optimization problems.

Control Theory And Dynamic Games In Economic Policy Analysis

Author : Maria Luisa Petit
ISBN : 9780521385237
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 77. 69 MB
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This book deals with the stabilisation and control of centralised policy-making and its economic implications.

Information Technology Social And Spatial Perspectives

Author : Isao Orishimo
ISBN : 9783642486388
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 36. 74 MB
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The book contains perspectives on the way new information technology might reorient the spatial organization of activity. The perspectives range from conceptual, high- lighting the role of research and development to case studies from Japan. Considerable debate is focused on the role of distance and the way in which new information technology might re-shape interaction and, eventually, the form and function of urban areas.

Decision Processes In Economics

Author : Gianni Ricci
ISBN : 9783642456862
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 23. 70 MB
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This book contains a selection of the papers presented at the symposium on "Decision processes in Economics" which was held in Modena (Italy) on 9-10 October 1989. It coincided with the annual meeting of the italian group on Game Theory; the group is formed by economists, mathematicians, engineers and social scientists. One of the targets of the Meeting, and therefore of the book, is to create an opportunity for having together papers by scientists with an "optimal control" education and papers by theorists on refinement of equilibrium, on repeted games and other topics. These two modes of working on Games are quite different but we think that a unitary approch to Games can be given and this book is an attempt in this direction. Another important and updated issue which is emphisized in the book is the discussion of computation and efficiency of numerical methods in Games. Stochastic differential games are treated in the papers by Basar, Haurie -and Deissemberg. Basar considers a stochastic model of a conflict situation between the monetary policy maker (go vernment) and the responding agent (private sector). Because of asymmetry in the (stochastic) information available the Nash and the Stackelberg games become non standard stochastic diffe rential games. After the discussion of the conditions leading to a solution he provides a numerical example for the proposed game. Haurie considers a game where the observed state changes according to a stochastic jump process.

Essays In Macroeconomics Of An Open Economy

Author : Franz Gehrels
ISBN : 9783642956591
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 60. 14 MB
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The large aggregates in the economy - consumption, investment, production of the domestic and the international sectors, international capital flows, financial accumulation and indebtedness - are analysed in this book as problems in time-optimisation for enterprises and households. The effects of fiscal and monetary policies along with exchange-rate variation are examined, and their simultaneous use for stabilizing demand are found to be necessary. All household decisions on consumptions, savings, and financial disposition are conditioned by uncertainty, and similarly for firms, who make more complex simultaneous decisions on production, real investment, financing, and market strategy. The marginal efficiency-of-investment function derived from these decisions is fundamentally different from the marginal productivity of capital in the neoclassical sense. An economy which grows through the accumulation of capital, increase in labor supply, and technological progress is the framework in which all of these variables move. This codetermines the allocation of factors between domestic and international production, and the development of foreign trade. The growth both of the public debt and of international investment are treated in depth.

Introductory Optimization Dynamics

Author : P.N.V. Tu
ISBN : 9783662007198
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 41. 84 MB
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Optimal Control theory has been increasingly used in Economi- and Management Science in the last fifteen years or so. It is now commonplace, even at textbook level. It has been applied to a great many areas of Economics and Management Science, such as Optimal Growth, Optimal Population, Pollution control, Natural Resources, Bioeconomics, Education, International Trade, Monopoly, Oligopoly and Duopoly, Urban and Regional Economics, Arms Race control, Business Finance, Inventory Planning, Marketing, Maintenance and Replacement policy and many others. It is a powerful tool of dynamic optimization. There is no doubt social sciences students should be familiar with this tool, if not for their own research, at least for reading the literature. These Lecture Notes attempt to provide a plain exposition of Optimal Control Theory, with a number of economic examples and applications designed mainly to illustrate the various techniques and point out the wide range of possible applications rather than to treat exhaustively any area of economic theory or policy. Chapters 2,3 and 4 are devoted to the Calculus of Variations, Chapter 5 develops Optimal Control theory from the Variational approach, Chapter 6 deals with the problems of constrained state and control variables , Chapter 7, with Linear Control models and Chapter 8, with stabilization models. Discrete systems are discussed in Chapter 9 and Sensitivity analysis in Chapter 10. Chapter 11 presents a wide range of Economics and Management Science applications.

A Structural Analysis Of Expectation Formation

Author : Marc Ivaldi
ISBN : 9783642467356
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 38. 15 MB
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Using panel data of individual firms drawn from French surveys, a structural analysis is developed to study the formation of production plans and the rationality of expectations. The production decision of a firm is defined as the optimal solution of a dynamic stochastic optimization problem. The empirical work amounts to recovering the structural parameters characterizing the model of the firm from estimates of the derived decision rule. The preceding analysis of production plans is based on the assumption that firms are rational. To justify this assumption, direct tests offer evidence that the Rational Expectations Hypothesis may not be rejected for quantity variables.

Economic Evolution And Demographic Change

Author : Günter Haag
ISBN : 9783642488085
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 24. 67 MB
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The articles collected in this volume have two features in common: they wantto integrate economics, demography and geography, and they want to overcome the stationary approach in modelling in favour of a dynamic one. The book is subdivided into three parts, where Part I is focussing on economic evolution, Part II on geographical development and Part III is related to demographic change. The present volume aims at providing a new look at this triangle in view of the classical background of discussions by introducing new research ideas focussing in nonlinear dynamics and stochastic modelling. Thus the main purpose of this book is to make a contribution to the interdisciplinary work needed to integrate the effortsbetween these three research fields and to serve as a research source in demonstrating the current state of art in dynamic modelling. The book isaddressed to social scientists in general, and those in particular with a background in economics, geographics and demographics. It should also be of interest to mathematicians, physicists, and systems analysts interested in model building and applications of nonlinear dynamics.

Dynamic Feature Space Modelling Filtering And Self Tuning Control Of Stochastic Systems

Author : Pieter W. Otter
ISBN : 9783642455933
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 30. 89 MB
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The literature on systems seems to have been growing almost expo nentially during the last decade and one may question whether there is need for another book. In the author's view, most of the literature on 'systems' is either technical in mathematical sense or technical ifF engineering sense (with technical words such as noise, filtering etc. ) and not easily accessible to researchers is other fields, in particular not to economists, econometricians and quantitative researchers in so cial sciences. This is unfortunate, because achievements in the rather 'young' science of system theory and system engineering are of impor tance for modelling, estimation and regulation (control) problems in other branches of science. State space mode~iing; the concept of ob servability and controllability; the mathematical formulations of sta bility; the so-called canonical forms; prediction error e~timation; optimal control and Kalman filtering are some examples of results of system theory and system engineering which proved to be successful in practice. A brief summary of system theoretical concepts is given in Chapter II where an attempt has been made to translate the concepts in to the more 'familiar' language used in econometrics and social sciences by means of examples. By interrelating concepts and results from system theory with those from econometrics and social sciences, the author has attempted to narrow the gap between the more technical sciences such as engi neering and social sciences and econometrics, and to contribute to either side.

Binary Functions And Their Applications

Author : Horand Störmer
ISBN : 3540528121
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 78. 91 MB
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In this book binary functions and their representation by implicants or implicates are described. In particular minimal representations by prime implicants or prime implicates are given. Such representations generalize the minimal representations of the usual Boolean functions. It is shown that implicants (implicates) of discrete functions may be constructed with the help of implicants (implicates) of binary functions. One substantial application is the description of the reliability structure of technical systems, another is the use of binary respectively discrete functions to classify objects which are described by the grades of certain attributes. Finally a class of Boolean algebras of practical importance (set algebras, indicator algebras, algebras of classes of propositions) are considered. The elements of such algebras have representations which are strongly connected with the representations of binary functions.

Regime Transitions Spillovers And Buffer Stocks

Author : Peter Stalder
ISBN : 9783642467394
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 73. 83 MB
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This book presents an econometric modeling approach for analysing macroeconomic disequilibria, focusing on the market for goods and labor and the spillovers between these markets transmitted through firms' decisions in the production sphere. The macroeconomic markets are treated as heterogeneous aggregates, consisting of a multitute of micro markets on which demand/supply ratios differ. Disequilibrium models have been under attack because they neglect that inventories enable firms to smooth production over the cycle, but the author argues that buffer stocks (output inventories, unfilled orders) should be accounted for within the disequilibrium framework, giving rise to a dynamic modification rather than a fundamental invalidation of rationing and spillover effects. The model developed in this book combines traditional Keynesian-type analysis with supply-side considerations and at the same time allows for micro-level imbalance. The resulting econometric structure is inherently nonlinear, reflecting that the response of economic activity to demand-side and supply-side factors varies over the cycle, depending on the aggregate mix of regimes. The model is estimated with quarterly data for Switzerland. Various simulation experiments clearly demonstrate the potential of this type of model for empirical business cycle analysis and policy discussions.

Topics In Structural Var Econometrics

Author : Carlo Giannini
ISBN : 9783662027578
Genre : Business & Economics
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1. Introduction 1 2. Identification Analysis and F.I.M.L. Estimation for the K-Mode1 10 3. Identification Analysis and F.I.ML. Estimation for the C-Model 23 4. Identification Analysis and F.I.M.L. Estimation for the AB-Model 32 5. Impulse Response Analysis and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition in SVAR Modeling 44 5 .a Impulse Response Analysis 44 5.b Variance Decomposition (by Antonio Lanzarotti) 51 6. Long-run A-priori Information. Deterministic Components. Cointegration 58 6.a Long-run A-priori Information 58 6.b Deterministic Components 62 6.c Cointegration 65 7. The Working of an AB-Model 71 Annex 1: The Notions ofReduced Form and Structure in Structural VAR Modeling 83 Annex 2: Some Considerations on the Semantics, Choice and Management of the K, C and AB-Models 87 Appendix A 93 Appendix B 96 Appendix C (by Antonio Lanzarotti and Mario Seghelini) 99 Appendix D (by Antonio Lanzarotti and Mario Seghelini) 109 References 128 Foreword In recent years a growing interest in the structural VAR approach (SVAR) has followed the path-breaking works by Blanchard and Watson (1986), Bemanke (1986) and Sims (1986), especially in U.S. applied macroeconometric literature. The approach can be used in two different, partially overlapping directions: the interpretation ofbusiness cycle fluctuations of a small number of significantmacroeconomic variables and the identification of the effects of different policies.

Optimal Firm Behaviour In The Context Of Technological Progress And A Business Cycle

Author : Onno van Hilten
ISBN : 9783662027189
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 37. 5 MB
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This thesis is a theoretical study of the optimal dynamic policies of a, to some extent, slowly adjusting firm that faces an exogeneously given technological progress and an exogeneously given business cycle. It belongs to the area of mathematical economics. It is intended to appeal to mathematical economists in the first place, economists in the second place and mathematicians in the third place. It entails an attempt to stretch the limits of the application of deterministic dynamic optimisation to economics, in particular to firm behaviour. A well-known· Dutch economist (and trained mathematician) recently stated in 1 a local university newspaper that mathematical economists give economics a bad reputation, since they formulate their problems from a mathematical point of view and they are only interested in technical, mathematical problems. At the same time, however, "profound as economists may be, when it comes to extending or modifying the existing theory to make it applicable to a certain economic problem, an understanding of optimal control theory (which is the mathematical theory used in this thesis, ovh) based solely on heuristic arguments will often turn out to be inadequate" (SydS

Simulation And Optimization

Author : Georg Pflug
ISBN : 9783642489143
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 58. 47 MB
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This volume contains selected papers presented at the "International Workshop on Computationally Intensive Methods in Simulation and Op th th timization" held from 23 to 25 August 1990 at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (nASA) in La~enburg, Austria. The purpose of this workshop was to evaluate and to compare recently developed methods dealing with optimization in uncertain environments. It is one of the nASA's activities to study optimal decisions for uncertain systems and to make the result usable in economic, financial, ecological and resource planning. Over 40 participants from 12 different countries contributed to the success of the workshop, 12 papers were selected for this volume. Prof. A. Kurzhanskii Chairman of the Systems and Decision Sciences Program nASA Preface Optimization in an random environment has become an important branch of Applied Mathematics and Operations Research. It deals with optimal de cisions when only incomplete information of t.he future is available. Consider the following example: you have to make the decision about the amount of production although the future demand is unknown. If the size of the de mand can be described by a probability distribution, the problem is called a stochastic optimization problem.

Operator Theorems With Applications To Distributive Problems And Equilibrium Models

Author : Antonio Villar
ISBN : 9783642457111
Genre : Business & Economics
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Presentation Many economic problems, as equilibrium models, input-output analysis, rational behaviour, etc. , are usually modelled in terms of operators in Euclidean spaces. This monograph deals with the analysis of a number of formal problems involving this kind of operators (with particular reference to complementarity problems and variational inequalities), and their applications to distributive problems and equilibrium models. Thus the purpose of this work is to provide a set of new results on the solvability of those problems, and a number of economic applications that will illustrate the interest of these results in economics. It is worth stressing from the very begining that our analysis concentrates on the existence (and in some cases optimality) of solutions. That is what is meant here by solvability (in particular, nothing will be said with respect to the uniqueness, stability, sensitivity analysis or computation of solutions). The results on the solvability of operator problems presented here, were actually arrived at as a way of solving specific economic models. Yet we are going to relate this case by somehow reversing the way it happened, that is, starting with the formal results and then presenting a number of economic models which appear as applications of VIII these formal results. The rationale for this approach is twofold. First, it provides a neat track via which to go through the whole work. Then, because I would like to emphasize the interest of complementarity and variational inequalities problems in economic modelling.

Parallel Computing And Mathematical Optimization

Author : Manfred Grauer
ISBN : 9783642956652
Genre : Computers
File Size : 49. 36 MB
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This special volume contains the Proceedings of a Workshop on "Parallel Algorithms and Transputers for Optimization" which was held at the University of Siegen, on November 9, 1990. The purpose of the Workshop was to bring together those doing research on 2.lgorithms for parallel and distributed optimization and those representatives from industry and business who have an increasing demand for computing power and who may be the potential users of nonsequential approaches. In contrast to many other conferences, especially North-American, on parallel processing and supercomputers the main focus of the contributions and discussion was "problem oriented". This view reflects the following philosophy: How can the existing computing infrastructure (PC's, workstations, local area networks) of an institution or a company be used for parallel and/or distributed problem solution in optimization. This volume of the LECfURE NOTES ON ECONOMICS AND MA THEMA TICAL SYSTEMS contains most of the papers presented at the workshop, plus some additional invited papers covering other important topics related to this workshop. The papers appear here grouped according to four general areas. (1) Solution of optimization problems using massive parallel systems (data parallelism). The authors of these papers are: Lootsma; Gehne. (II) Solution of optimization problems using coarse-grained parallel approaches on multiprocessor systems (control parallelism). The authors of these papers are: Bierwirth, Mattfeld, and Stoppler; Schwartz; Boden, Gehne, and Grauer; and Taudes and Netousek.

Stochastic Two Stage Programming

Author : Karl Frauendorfer
ISBN : 9783642956966
Genre : Business & Economics
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Stochastic Programming offers models and methods for decision problems wheresome of the data are uncertain. These models have features and structural properties which are preferably exploited by SP methods within the solution process. This work contributes to the methodology for two-stagemodels. In these models the objective function is given as an integral, whose integrand depends on a random vector, on its probability measure and on a decision. The main results of this work have been derived with the intention to ease these difficulties: After investigating duality relations for convex optimization problems with supply/demand and prices being treated as parameters, a stability criterion is stated and proves subdifferentiability of the value function. This criterion is employed for proving the existence of bilinear functions, which minorize/majorize the integrand. Additionally, these minorants/majorants support the integrand on generalized barycenters of simplicial faces of specially shaped polytopes and amount to an approach which is denoted barycentric approximation scheme.

Theory Of Vector Optimization

Author : Dinh The Luc
ISBN : 9783642502804
Genre : Business & Economics
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These notes grew out of a series of lectures given by the author at the Univer sity of Budapest during 1985-1986. Additional results have been included which were obtained while the author was at the University of Erlangen-Niirnberg under a grant of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. Vector optimization has two main sources coming from economic equilibrium and welfare theories of Edgeworth (1881) and Pareto (1906) and from mathemat ical backgrounds of ordered spaces of Cantor (1897) and Hausdorff (1906). Later, game theory of Borel (1921) and von Neumann (1926) and production theory of Koopmans (1951) have also contributed to this area. However, only in the fifties, after the publication of Kuhn-Tucker's paper (1951) on the necessary and sufficient conditions for efficiency, and of Deubreu's paper (1954) on valuation equilibrium and Pareto optimum, has vector optimization been recognized as a mathematical discipline. The stretching development of this field began later in the seventies and eighties. Today there are a number of books on vector optimization. Most of them are concerned with the methodology and the applications. Few of them offer a systematic study of the theoretical aspects. The aim of these notes is to pro vide a unified background of vector optimization,with the emphasis on nonconvex problems in infinite dimensional spaces ordered by convex cones. The notes are arranged into six chapters. The first chapter presents prelim inary material.

Experimental Duopoly Markets With Demand Inertia

Author : Claudia Keser
ISBN : 9783642481444
Genre : Business & Economics
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This report portrays the results of experimental research on dynamic duopoly markets with demand inertia. Two methods of experimentation are studied: game-playing experiments where subjects interact spontaneously via computer terminals, and computer tournaments between strategies designed by subjects. The principal aim of this study is the understanding of boundedly rational decision making in the dynamic duopoly situation. 1. 1 Motivation The experiments examine a multistage duopoly game where prices in each period are the only decision variables. Sales depend on current prices and also on past sales (demand inertia). Applying the game-theoretic concept of subgame perfect equilibrium, the game is solved by backward induction. The result is a uniquely determined system of decision rules. However, we can hardly expect that human beings behave according to the equilibrium strategy of this game. It is unlikely that subjects are able to compute the equilibrium. And even if a subject is able to compute it, he might not make use of this knowledge. Only if he expects the others to behave according to the equilibrium, it is optimal for him to play the equilibrium strategy. We have evidence from several earlier experimental studies on oligopoly markets that, even in less complex oligopoly situations where the equilibrium solutions are very easy to compute, human behavior often is different from what is prescribed by normative theory. ! Normative theory is based on the concept of ideal rationality. However, human capabilities impose cognitive limits on rationality.

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